At the beginning of the season, not too many people would've thought that this game would have major Big Ten Title implications, but on Saturday, October 18th, two ranked and undefeated conference teams will be squaring off in East Lansing. The winner will likely be neck and neck with the surprisingly dominant Nittany Lions of Penn State in the conference. Here are what I think each team needs to do in order to be victorious in this game.
When Michigan State has the ball:
MSU: There are a couple of words that I think that would define Michigan State's offense, they would include: old school, smashmouth, and Javon Ringer. There is no surprise that MSU will probably be running the football most of the time, and the aforementioned running back is the main man of the offense. Ringer (5'9" 202lb) is a legitimate man of muscle. Benches 420 and squats over 600, he doesn't possess lightning quick speed that most RB's have at his frame, but he is a tough, scrappy runner who will fight for all the yards he can get. MSU has to establish the run early on against a tough Ohio State front seven if they are to have any chance of winning this game. Last year, they had trouble running the ball as Ringer scrapped together 49 yards on 18 carries (2.7 ypc). However, this year the Spartans have a more experienced offensive line and have been able to bowl over opponents and have helped pave the way for Ringer who has averaged 35 carries for 159 yards and 2 touchdowns per game, and has launched him into Heisman discussions throughout the nation. Through the running game, the Spartans have a very effective play action game that QB Brian Hoyer has enjoyed this season. He has talented receivers in B.J. Cunningham, Fred Smith, and Deon Curry to distribute the ball to. Hoyer will need to have good game management and use the play action to his benefit to possibly exploit the Buckeye secondary. But really, it will all be decided in the trenches.
OSU: As I mentioned above, there are no secrets to Michigan State's offense. In a good game, they will run the ball 30-35 times with Ringer, throw a couple play action passes, and call it a day. Well, OSU's defense will have to make sure this doesn't happen. It is very important that the defense prevents Ringer and Hoyer from getting into a rhythm, because if so, it could translate into a long day for Tressel and Co. Instead, they need to stop the run on first and probably second down, and then set up a long 3rd and 8 situation and make Brian Hoyer try to beat you on his own. He is good at best and an average quarterback most of the time. If the defense takes away Ringer, they will most likely win this game. Laurinitus and the linebacking corps will have to make sure they tackle well so they prevent Ringer from having opportunities to make big plays. MSU will also be calling a fair amount of PA passes, so the secondary can't be caught looking in the backfield or else they might give up a good pass completion. Overall, the defense for the Bucks is more athletic and stronger than the teams MSU has faced over the course of this season, and they need to build off of their showing against Purdue. It will be interesting to see if the defense can overwhelm the MSU O-Line.
When Ohio State has the ball:
OSU: If the Ohio State offense cares to find an identity about what works for them, this would be the game to figure it out. Pryor, Beanie, and the rest of the offense cannot afford to start off slow and let Michigan State jump out to an early lead. If this happens, the MSU run happy offense will melt the clock ever so quickly away and the game will be lost before you know it. Instead, the offense needs to come storming out and jump to a quick 7-0 lead that will put MSU on their heels. They really need to set the tone early and have Pryor get into a rhythm in the hostile environment of Spartan Stadium. The Spartans are a blitz happy defense, and will try to make Pryor display some of his bad habits (holding onto the ball for too long) and turn that into positive plays for them. Pryor needs to exploit these blitzes and find Robiskie, Hartline, Posey, and big target Jake Ballard without delay. This will help the Buckeye offense to get settled in and will help to get rid of the run heavy defense that the Pryor & Co has seen recently. If the Buckeyes have their way passing early on, this will open up Beanie Wells all day and will put less pressure on Pryor to perform the rest of the game.
MSU: Contain, contain, contain....that's the word of the week for the MSU defense. That's what they need to do against the running game of the Buckeyes. They need to prevent Pryor and Wells from breaking big runs that will get them going on offense. So far this season, if OSU can't run the ball, you will have an opportunity at beating them. One thing that will help is if MSU disguises their coverages and pressures Pryor into either A) holding onto the ball for too long in the pocket, or B) make an ill-advised pass. Tressel will probably elect to go with his usual style of conservative football early on, so the Spartans could capitalize and force one or two three and outs to set up the offense with good field position and a good opportunity to score. Either way, it will depend on how Pryor performs, and how well Michigan State can contain the run and if they can make Pryor beat them instead of the other weapons the Bucks have on offense.
Outcome: I think this game will be like the Ohio St-Mich St game last year, I think Ringer will have a tough day running the ball falling just short of 100 yards for the game. Ohio State will get just enough big plays so that they can win a close game.
Prediction: Ohio State 23 Michigan State 16
1 comment:
Ben, I must say, I agree with alot of this.
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