South Region

Moving to the other side of the bracket now, the South Region starts in Kansas City. Kansas had an eventful season in conference play this winter. Kansas suffered its first 3 game losing streak in over a decade, including an embarrassing loss to TCU. Coach Bill Self had some angry remarks about the team after the game. Self said this was the worst Kansas team since Dr. Naismith (the inventor of basketball) was at Kansas. The turning point of the season was an overtime win at Iowa State on February 25. Self had a discussion with Elijah Johnson before the game and his senior delivered, leading Kansas with 39 points, 5 rebounds, and 7 assists. Kansas starts 4 seniors with one of the most talented freshmen in the country, Ben McLemore. However, Kansas has suffered a series of upsets in recent years. It is tough to trust this team.

Loaded Competition:
This region is loaded. 2 Seed Georgetown is led by player of the year candidate Otto Porter. An alarming stat: Georgetown is 247th in the nation in scoring offense. Georgetown has won 13 of its last 15, though, including impressive wins against Syracuse (twice), Louisville, Marquette, and Notre Dame.  Georgetown has an impressive resume but their offense could go dry and cause an early exit.

3 seed Florida is the computer favorite to advance out of this region. Nate Silver, who correctly predicted the 2012 Presidential election, used a computer formula to determine likely champions (attached at bottom). Surprisingly, Florida came out of the projection as the third most likely team to win the championship! I don't buy the strength of the SEC this season and Florida has yet to win a game by less than 10 points this season. A champion has to win close games in March.

4 seed Michigan and 5 seed VCU both pose gigantic threats to Kansas as well. Michigan has likely player of the year, Trey Burke, in addition to an athletic lineup. They really are their own problem. Michigan has the most talented lineup in this region. Yet, Michigan slipped up this season to Penn State and couldn't close the deal against Indiana, costing OSU, MSU, and themselves a share of the Big Ten regular season title. Michigan followed that up with a disappointing loss to Wisconsin in the Big Ten quarterfinals. Like the elite teams, Michigan is good, but its hard to say how good. VCU is more talented than the team that Shaka Smart took from the play-in game to the final 4 as an 11 seed. It is hard to ignore the Rams in this region.

The Rest of the Region:
UNC is a threat as an 8 seed. Roy Williams has a new 4-guard lineup that is clicking. A potential Roy Williams matchup against Kansas would be a great game to watch. 9 seed Villanova had 3 upsets against top 5 teams (Louisville, Syracuse, Georgetown) and also had a victory over Marquette. They could also be a threat in this region. 11 seed Minnesota out of the Big Ten is another team that many like, including Las Vegas; Minnesota is the favorite in their matchup vs 6 seed UCLA.

The Verdict:
My gut says Georgetown survives the group of death. Don't be surprised to see Kansas, Michigan, VCU, Florida, or even UNC or Villanova in Atlanta though.



Nate silver's projection: http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1575342-nate-silvers-ncaa-tournament-formula-arrives-to-solve-march-madness