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Thursday, March 28, 2013

NL Central Preview

The NL Central will certainly miss the Houston Astros. Here's how the teams stack up entering 2013:

Class of the Central: Cincinnati Reds
The Reds have won two of the last three division titles and seem poised to win another as the season begins. The Reds acquired Shin-Soo Choo from the Indians to bolster their lineup. He will make the move from RF to CF for the first time in his career. The rest of the lineup is the same young core- Jay Bruce, Todd Frazier, Zack Cozart- with MVP candidate Joey Votto and all-star Brandon Phillips. The Reds made the decision to keep the "Cuban Missile" Aroldis Chapman in the bullpen as their closer. As a result, they enter 2013 with the same rotation as last season- Johnny Cueto, Mat Latos, Bronson Arroyo, Homer Bailey, and Mike Leake. The Reds performed impressively without Votto last season, which means this team certainly has the potential for 100 wins if they can stay healthy.

Model of Consistency: St. Louis Cardinals
The Cardinals continue to play baseball at a high level no matter what lineup they throw out on the field. The Cardinals will be without Chris Carpenter (injury) and Kyle Lohse (free agency) in their rotation. However, St. Louis is continuing to reload rather than rebuild, with young studs Jon Jay, Allen Craig, Matt Carpenter, Pete Kozma, and NLDS hero Daniel Descalso. Highly touted prospect Oscar Tavares will likely join the roster after the all-star break as well. The Cardinals will have to deal with inconsistent pitching (especially from their bullpen) and will rely heavily on Adam Wainwright, Lance Lynn, and Jaime Garcia to carry them on a playoff run. This team could challenge the Reds for the title if its pieces together, but this seems more like a wild card team than a division winner.

Outside looking in: Milwaukee Brewers
Milwaukee was able to muster 83 wins in their first season without Prince Fielder. The Brewers will start this season without Zack Greinke and Shaun Marcum in their rotation. However, they signed Kyle Lohse to replace Greinke and have a young repertoire of young pitching with Marco Estrada, Chris Narveson, and Mike Fiers anchoring their underrated rotation. Milwaukee's bullpen was miserable last season and blew many games in the late innings. Francisco Rodriguez (3 for 10 in save oppurtunities) was allowed to walk but John Axford (35 for 44) will return as the closer after a disappointing season (5-8, 4.67 ERA). A big storyline that could impact the success of the Brewers this season is the status of their star LF and 2011 MVP Ryan Braun. If Braun is suspended, this team is not deep enough to overcome his loss. The Brewers will start the season without Corey Hart and will have SS Alex Gonzalez playing 1B in his absence. This is a solid under the radar team that may find itself in the playoff hunt come September, but it seems like a lot has to go their way for that to happen.

Is this the year?- Pittsburgh Pirates
Pittsburgh almost ended their streak of losing seasons, but a late season collapse had them sitting at 79-83. This year, Pittsburgh will try to get on the winning side behind superstar CF Andrew McCutchen. The Pirates brought in veteran C Russell Martin to work with their new rotation. The Pirates have an interesting rotation of A.J. Burnett, Wandy Rodriguez, James McDonald, Jeff Locke, and Jonathan Sanchez. If each pitcher performs at a top level, this team is good enough to win 82 games this year. Contributions from Neil Walker, Garrett Jones, and Pedro Alvarez in help of McCutchen are also critical. However, it seems like too much needs to go right for Pittsburgh and they may be headed toward a 21st consecutive season without an above .500 win percentage.

Is this THE year?- Chicago Cubs
The lovable losers from the north side of Chicago have not won a world series since 1908. 105 years later, is this team ready to compete for a title? Quick answer- no. The Cubs have a lot of work to do in all facets of their game. The good news for the Cubs is they did not lose any significant players from last season. However, this team had 61 wins last season. Anthony Rizzo needs a huge season for the Cubs to move in the right direction. Barring a trade, Rizzo will be protected by Alfonso Soriano, who seemed to had made some good adjustments to his swing last season, tallying over 100 RBI from the cleanup spot. The Cubs brought in 4 starting pitchers to add depth to their rotation, the biggest name being Edwin Jackson. I doubt this team does much damage in this division, but the Cubs appear to be heading in the right direction with the way that their prospects played in spring training. This team is still a few years away.

NL East Preview

With the MLB beginning its new season within the next week, we dive into a preview of the upcoming year. We start with the NL East.

Favorite: Washington Nationals
The Nationals had the best record in the majors last season with 98 wins. They enter 2013 as the favorite to win the NL East. It is hard to bet against the Nationals when they did not lose any of their key starters. Kurt Suzuki was brought in to be the man behind the plate. They also added Denard Span to their outfield, which is a strong unit with a healthy Jayson Werth and Rookie of the Year Bryce Harper. The Nationals almost lost their first basemen but were able to retain Adam LaRoche. The Nationals also added Dan Haren to their rotation, joining Stephen Strasburg, Jordan Zimmermann, and Gio Gonzalez. A big storyline for this season will be whether or not Strasburg is on an innings limit. Last season, Strasburg was shut down before the post season and the Nationals lost in the NLDS to St. Louis. Strasburg's arm is still a concern due to his enormous potential. Strasburg threw 100 more innings in 2012 than in 2011. This year's goal is 200 innings (plus 30 more in playoffs) meaning that he could throw anywhere from 40-50 more innings in 2013 than 2012. Given his age, it would not be a surprise to see the Nationals limit Strasburg again. Expect the Nationals to be near the top of the National League with their strong bullpen (and new closer Rafael Soriano) and to be a threat in the postseason. Shutting down Strasburg, though, could cost them a shot at a title (again).

Top Contender: Atlanta Braves
The Braves spent the offseason dealing. They boosted their outfield with the additions of both Justin and BJ Upton to join Jason Heyward (and an underrated pick up of Reed Johnson as well). This outfield meshes together nicely with a ton of young talent on the team, like Andrelton Simmons and Freddie Freeman. Pitching-wise, their bullpen is weaker than Washington's. However, they have a more complete rotation with Tim Hudson, Mike Minor, Paul Maholm, Mike Minor, and Julio Teheran. Like their lineup, it is a great mix of veterans and young talent. Plus, Craig Kimbrel is arguably the best closer in the game sitting in their bullpen. The Braves could challenge the Nationals for the division crown, but both teams should be in wild card hunt should they miss out on the division title.

Muddled Middle: Philadelphia Phillies
The Phillies had a dissapointing season in 2012, but they were able to play solid baseball in the second half of the year. Philadelphia brought in Michael Young to play 3B and bring veteran leadership to the club. This team will need a big season from their young outfield, especially Domonic Brown, who is having an incredible spring in his return from injury. Cole Hamels, Roy Halladay, and Cliff Lee remain at the top of a solid rotation. Jonathan Papelbon returns as the closer. The Phillies are a quality club and good bounce back seasons from Ryan Howard and Chase Utley could lead the Phillies to exceed expectations. However, this team is on the outside looking in as the season begins.

Headed in the Wrong Direction: New York Mets
It looks like Mets fans will be in for a long season. The lone bright spot on the roster is David Wright, who can only take this team so far. Ike Davis, Lucas Duda, and the rest of the supporting cast will probably not be enough for the Mets to be a contender. This team is clearly in rebuilding mode, especially after trading away Cy Young Winner R.A. Dickey to Toronto. This team could be competitive, but no one expects this team to make a playoff push. The Mets appear to be a couple of years away from being on level with Atlanta and Washington.

Simply, Just a Mess: Miami Marlins
Last offseason the Marlins went on a huge spending spree to fill their new stadium in Miami. The fans were excited and they became a trendy team around the country. The Marlins have Giancarlo Stanton, one of the best young players in the game, to anchor their lineup. Veterans Juan Pierre and Placido Polanco signed with Miami this offeason. However, this team went on a complete fire-sale, dumping salary to the Blue Jays by trading Josh Johnson, Jose Reyes, Mark Buehrle, John Buck (later a part of the Dickey trade) and Emilio Bonifacio. This team is easily the worst team in the National League as the season begins and have a long way to go to compete in this division.



Thursday, March 21, 2013

East Region

We are about an hour away from the tip-off of the tournament! One more region to breakdown: the East. The East favorite is Indiana. Indiana was the preseason number 1 in the rankings and really have not done much to disappoint. Their lineup features breakout player Victor Oladipo, national player of the year candidate and Big Ten defensive player of the year, to complement their star post player Cody Zeller. Zeller is one of the most athletic big men currently at the college level. Indiana is actually my selection to win the entire tournament because I feel that are the most complete team in the country. However, they have lost 3 of their last 6 games. The Big Ten is the best conference and I think despite these losses, Indiana will matchup better with the teams in this region. Statistically, Indiana has the best offense in the nation.

Hurricane Miami:
One team that stands in the way for a trip to Atlanta is Miami. Despite their inexperience, Miami's coach Jim Larranaga has been here before. Larranaga took a far less talented George Mason team to the final 4. Shane Larkin leads a lethal attack for Miami. Miami's key to the tournament is to stay humble. This season they had some dominant performances, including key victories over Duke and North Carolina. However, they have slipped up a couple of times this season, losing to weak Wake Forest and Georgia Tech teams. Since those losses, Miami has not lost and won the ACC tournament. If they can stay humble and embrace the underdog role, Miami is a legitimate title contender.

The Rest:
I don't really see much competition besides the top 2 in this region. Marquette and Syracuse are out of the Big East and they do have some potential. Both teams are rather inconsistent, though, and I don't see either sustaining a run. Brad Stevens took Butler to back-to-back championship games in recent memory and has a solid leader in Rotnei Clarke (Clarke will be playing in his first NCAA tournament game though). I expect a lot of mediocrity in this bracket with very little upsets.

Verdict:
Indiana wins a battle with Miami. Both cruise relatively easily to the elite 8.





South Region

Moving to the other side of the bracket now, the South Region starts in Kansas City. Kansas had an eventful season in conference play this winter. Kansas suffered its first 3 game losing streak in over a decade, including an embarrassing loss to TCU. Coach Bill Self had some angry remarks about the team after the game. Self said this was the worst Kansas team since Dr. Naismith (the inventor of basketball) was at Kansas. The turning point of the season was an overtime win at Iowa State on February 25. Self had a discussion with Elijah Johnson before the game and his senior delivered, leading Kansas with 39 points, 5 rebounds, and 7 assists. Kansas starts 4 seniors with one of the most talented freshmen in the country, Ben McLemore. However, Kansas has suffered a series of upsets in recent years. It is tough to trust this team.

Loaded Competition:
This region is loaded. 2 Seed Georgetown is led by player of the year candidate Otto Porter. An alarming stat: Georgetown is 247th in the nation in scoring offense. Georgetown has won 13 of its last 15, though, including impressive wins against Syracuse (twice), Louisville, Marquette, and Notre Dame.  Georgetown has an impressive resume but their offense could go dry and cause an early exit.

3 seed Florida is the computer favorite to advance out of this region. Nate Silver, who correctly predicted the 2012 Presidential election, used a computer formula to determine likely champions (attached at bottom). Surprisingly, Florida came out of the projection as the third most likely team to win the championship! I don't buy the strength of the SEC this season and Florida has yet to win a game by less than 10 points this season. A champion has to win close games in March.

4 seed Michigan and 5 seed VCU both pose gigantic threats to Kansas as well. Michigan has likely player of the year, Trey Burke, in addition to an athletic lineup. They really are their own problem. Michigan has the most talented lineup in this region. Yet, Michigan slipped up this season to Penn State and couldn't close the deal against Indiana, costing OSU, MSU, and themselves a share of the Big Ten regular season title. Michigan followed that up with a disappointing loss to Wisconsin in the Big Ten quarterfinals. Like the elite teams, Michigan is good, but its hard to say how good. VCU is more talented than the team that Shaka Smart took from the play-in game to the final 4 as an 11 seed. It is hard to ignore the Rams in this region.

The Rest of the Region:
UNC is a threat as an 8 seed. Roy Williams has a new 4-guard lineup that is clicking. A potential Roy Williams matchup against Kansas would be a great game to watch. 9 seed Villanova had 3 upsets against top 5 teams (Louisville, Syracuse, Georgetown) and also had a victory over Marquette. They could also be a threat in this region. 11 seed Minnesota out of the Big Ten is another team that many like, including Las Vegas; Minnesota is the favorite in their matchup vs 6 seed UCLA.

The Verdict:
My gut says Georgetown survives the group of death. Don't be surprised to see Kansas, Michigan, VCU, Florida, or even UNC or Villanova in Atlanta though.



Nate silver's projection: http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1575342-nate-silvers-ncaa-tournament-formula-arrives-to-solve-march-madness

Wednesday, March 20, 2013

West Region

      The breakdown of the NCAA tournament continues with coverage of the west region. The favorite of this region is actually the 2 seed, Ohio State. OSU is an easy team to figure out. If DeShaun Thomas gets hot and the role players complete their jobs effectively (Craft penetrating, Smith and Ross shooting, Thompson chipping in with his athleticism, Williams playing solid down in the post) then this team probably will not lose. However, they can find other ways to win. Aaron Craft and Shannon Scott are both 1st-team Big Ten defenders that set the tone for the rest of the team. While OSU may struggle to score, their defense can keep them in games and produce some offense in the transition game. If Ohio State does lose, it will be because Thomas goes cold and the lack of a second scorer prevents the Buckeyes from scoring enough points.

Threats to Ohio State:
1 Seed Gonzaga is tough to figure out. Gonzaga went undefeated in West Coast Conference play, including three victories over play-in game winner St. Mary's. Kelly Olynyk is an athletic 7 footer who can score from anywhere on the floor. He has terrific ball handling skills for a big man due to a growth spurt in high school (he used to be a guard). Gonzaga has not lost since a meltdown in the final seconds at Butler on January 19. They also lost on the road to Illinois back in December. Every other game has been a W for Gonzaga, the most impressive of which is their road win at Oklahoma State. Gonzaga is very untested, clearly, and it is really tough to gauge just how good this Gonzaga team is this year. The tournament will show us if Gonzaga is deserving of their number 1 ranking in the latest AP poll.

3 Seed New Mexico is a team that flew under the radar this season. New Mexico went 13-3 in an underrated Mountain West conference before winning the conference tournament. 4 of the 5 New Mexico losses were to tournament teams, with the 5th loss being on the road to Air Force after the conference title was clinched. Guard Tony Snell has been hot lately, averaging just under 20 points per game over his last 5 games. Expect coach Steve Alford to get Snell involved in the offense heavily.

The Rest:
This region features many interesting teams. 4 Seed Kansas State failed to beat Kansas this season but looked pretty good versus the rest of their schedule. Wisconsin is a trendy 5 seed. The Badgers went 4-0 against Indiana and Michigan (3-0 on road/neutral court) and also were the last team to beat the buckeyes, winning by over 20 points at home. The Badgers are hard to figure out with a great defense, and avery streaky offense. The team seems poised for a deep run, but could lose to 12 seed Ole Miss. The Rebels won the SEC tournament with a comeback victory led by Marshall Henderson. Henderson is an incredibly outspoken leader for the Rebels, who has publicly stated he is ready to carry Ole Miss in this tournament much like Steph Curry carried Davidson. Henderson is one of the most hated players in the game, but he is also one of the most talented, so watch out for Ole Miss. 11 Seed Belmont also has a solid group of four seniors leading them, creating potential for complete chaos in this region.

The Verdict:
OSU returns to the final 4. Gonzaga and Wisconsin suffer early exits and New Mexico runs into a hot Buckeye team (if Belmont doesn't take care of New Mexico first). Expect a lot of chaos in this region and potentially a wild elite 8 run for a team like Ole Miss, if Henderson can deliver on his promise.

Tuesday, March 19, 2013

Midwest Region

      It's the time of the year that everyone dreams of- Christmas! Well, not exactly. It is time for March Madness though as we start to kiss winter goodbye and move on to summer. Here are some tips for your bracket pool as we dive into the midwest region.

Louisville:
Louisville is the number 1 overall seed and is coming off a title win in the final Big East tournament. Louisville is an experienced team that reached the final four last season before falling to Kentucky. They are a favorite due to strong leadership in their backcourt from Russ Smith and Peyton Siva. Gorgui Dieng leads an impressive interior defense and is a strong rebounder averaging 9.9 RPG. Since suffering 3 straight losses in late January, Louisville has won 13 of 14 (with the loss occurring @Notre Dame in 5OT) and 11 straight. Rick Pitino is an experienced coach and Louisville is a legitimate contender for a championship.

Standing in the way:
Duke and Michigan State are obvious threats to Louisville in this region. Duke has only suffered one loss since the return of Ryan Kelly. They went undefeated in non-conference play and suffered 4 road losses in ACC play in addition to their loss to Maryland in the ACC tournament. Coach K will have the Dukies well-rested and refocused for a tournament run. They have something to prove this year as well, coming off a loss to Lehigh in last season's tourney as a 2 seed. Good news for Louisville: no team has ever won a national title after losing its first game in its conference tournament.

Michigan State has the Big Ten freshman of the year in Gary Harris leading the Spartans into the tournament. The Spartans can also expect production from their two big men down low in Adreian Payne and Derrick Nix. Keith Appling is their most experienced player. However, Appling has disappeared in Michigan State's four biggest games this season. One stat worth noting: Tom Izzo owns a 35-13 record in the NCAA tournament.

The rest:
Saint Louis has been very impressive out of the A-10, winning both the regular season and conference tournament titles. They have won 15 of their last 16 games. Oklahoma State has played Kansas tight this season and has one of the best players in the region in point guard Marcus Smart. The 6 seed Memphis went undefeated in conference play and 7 seed Creighton returns to the tournament with the nation's 2nd leading scorer, Doug McDermott (23.1 PPG). The 8-16 seeds in this region are probably the weakest of the field, but 12 seed Oregon is a team to look out for. The Ducks started the season hot and seem to be on the right track after winning the Pac-12 tournament this past weekend.

Verdict:
I like the upset. I like Duke to advance out of this bracket, but it is because I expect Louisville to stumble against Saint Louis. Louisville is one bad game from Peyton Siva away from an early exit. Duke advances to Atlanta by playing every game as the favorite.

Next up: West Region

The Miami Heat are on Fire

      Last night at The Garden, the Heat extended their winning streak to 23 games by beating Boston 105-103. In a game where nearly everything went right for Boston, Miami was still able to win. With their comeback win last night, Miami has reached its final checkpoint before chasing down the '71-'72 Lakers win streak of 33 games. Entering the contest, Miami had beaten its opponents by an average of 11.7 points per game. This game went far differently.

     Jeff Green exploded early in the game, powering the Celtics to an early lead. He helped lead the C's on a 17-0 run to close out the first quarter. Miami trailed by 12 at the end of the first period. Boston had won 11 straight at home (all since Rondo's injury), and 10 straight at home in the regular season against the Heat, including 5-0 since LeBron James joined Miami. It was all going Boston's way. They held this early lead throughout the game, leading by 13 with 8:00 left in the 4th quarter. Since Paul Pierce was drafted, the Celtics were 316-2 when leading by that margin with eight minutes or fewer remaining. On the flip-side, LeBron's teams went 2-105 in such games.

      The Heat would not be denied. LeBron hit a pull-up jumper to give the Heat the lead and Paul Pierce missed at the buzzer to clinch the game. The Heat overcame a deficit of 17 points, the largest deficit they faced during the streak. LeBron had 37 points, 12 assists, and 7 rebounds; he was the first player to put up those numbers at the Celtics since Scottie Pippen in 1995. He also leads the NBA with 4 games of at least 30 points and 10 assists. Miami also withstood a career night from Jeff Green, who finished with 43 points, 7 rebounds, 4 blocks, 2 steals, and 2 assists (the first player to hit those benchmarks since, ironically, LeBron James in 2010).

      What does last night mean? The Celtics had a career night from Jeff Green and a lead that they had only blown two times in the past 15 seasons. Yet, Miami still was able to find a way to win. This begs the question: Can they keep streaking? The quick answer is yes. The Heat have a cakewalk through the rest of March playing Cleveland, Detroit, Charlotte, Orlando, Chicago, and New Orleans before a meeting at San Antonio to close the month. LeBron James is clicking and the league's frontrunner for MVP continues to make highlight reels on a nightly basis. The heat also have outscored their opponents by 70 points in the final 5 minutes of the fourth quarter and overtime during their win streak. With all these factors in play, the safe bet is that the Heat will still be streaking come April. If you have been betting on the Heat all along, you are a very happy individual right now. If you started with $100 on the Heat winning their first game of the streak and let it ride for all 23 games, you would have a paycheck of $55,500 sitting on your desk.

(facts and figures taken from @BleacherReport and @espnstatsinfo on twitter)