Second Tier Dilemma

With a little over three weeks until Selection Sunday, teams across the country are trying to play their way into the tournament, improve their seed, or in cases like Penn State, pull off a string of miracles in Indianapolis to get the automatic bid. Looking at more bracketology sites, it's becoming clearer that Kentucky and Syracuse will get the top two national seeds and be the #1 seeds in the Atlanta and Boston regionals respectively. But what about the St. Louis regional and does anyone really want to be the #1 seed in Phoenix? Or, would a Big Ten or Big 12 team rather stay closer to home as a #2 seed? That, my friends, is the second tier dilemma and a question for Matta's Buckeyes in these final weeks.

For decades, the NCAA Selection Committee has worked to get the top at-large teams into the tournament and keep teams fairly close to home. Sometimes that just doesn't work out. Just ask Duke, who entered the tournament as a #1 seed, but was shipped to Anaheim for the Sweet 16. There, Duke was massacred by the Arizona Wildcats from the lowly Pac-10 Conference. But earlier that night, UConn provided a counterargument, knocking off San Diego State. 2,525 miles separate the campus is Storrs from Anaheim. San Diego State? A mere 89-mile difference. So, is there really a difference or is this a much ado about nothing?

One possible way to look at this is comparing the tournament performances of the #1 seed who had to travel the furthest alongside the #2 seed who had the shortest distance to travel. In the past six tournaments, only once has the #1 seed farthest away from home advanced further into the tournament than the #2 seed closest to campus. (Though, if you look at the team who did it, they were much closer to home than others before and after them.) In fact, four times in the past six teams, the #2 seed closest to home advanced all the way to the Final Four. San Diego State's regional semifinal exit last season was the worst performance by such a #2 seed since the UConn Huskies didn't make it past the second round in 2005, losing to #10 seed N.C. State in Worchester, Massachusetts.

Year	Farthest #1	Regional	Distance (mi)	Lost In	Closest #2	Regional	Distance (mi)	Lost In
2011	Duke	Anaheim	2203	Sweet 16	San Diego St.	Anaheim	89	Sweet 16
2010	Syracuse	Salt Lake City	1833	Sweet 16	West Virginia	Syracuse, N.Y.	308	Final Four
2009	UConn	Glendale, Ariz.	2238	Final Four	Michigan St.	Indianapolis	223	Nat'l Runner-Up
2008	Kansas	Detroit	680	Nat'l Champion	Texas	Houston	146	Elite Eight
2007	Kansas	San Jose	1449	Elite Eight	Georgetown	E. Rutherford, N.J.	206	Final Four
2006	Memphis	Oakland	1793	Elite Eight	UCLA	Oakland	344	Nat'l Runner-Up

Here is Ohio State's dilemma going into the final weeks of the season. After their first home loss in 40 games last week to Michigan State, they fell to a #2 seed in Joe Lunardi's Bracketology this past Monday. There is no need for Buckeye fans to panic yet because they still have one more game vs. Michigan State and a possible date with them in Indianapolis. However, if the Buckeyes fall short against Sparty again, they may be heading someplace other than St. Louis for the regionals. In fact, it's very likely they will go someplace other than St. Louis.

Right now, Kentucky and Syracuse are going to Atlanta and Boston respectively. The third #1 seed, whether they're from the Big Ten, Big 12, or ACC, will probably go to St. Louis. Finally, the fourth #1 seed will get shipped off to Phoenix, whether they want to or not. This means that for OSU to be a #1 in St. Louis, they will have to climb back over everybody, including Kansas and Michigan State, two teams that have added to the Buckeyes' loss column this season.

How about a #2 seed in St. Louis? To be forward, the Buckeyes need to knock off Sparty on the road, which they've done 3 of their last 5 times in East Lansing. On top of that, OSU needs to outlast Michigan State in the Big Ten Tournament. If the Buckeyes can do this, they will get the nod to go to St. Louis over Michigan State. This is especially probable if the #1 seed in St. Louis goes to a team from the Big 12, which is very likely with Kansas and Missouri playing some of the best basketball in the country right now.

There is still the chance of the Buckeyes going to Atlanta or Boston. However, it's almost a guarantee that Ohio State would have a date with Kentucky or Syracuse in the Elite Eight. On top of that, there is a good chance that if North Carolina goes on a run in the final weeks, something everybody knows they are capable of, they will move themselves into a favorable position and get the nod for the #2 in Atlanta if they avoid getting that dreaded Phoenix #1 seed.

There are some teams that don't have a problem with playing a long way from home in the NCAA Tournament. UConn had to go through the regional in Anaheim to win the national championship last season. Before that, their trip to the 2004 national championship took the Huskies through Phoenix. That's without mentioning their 2009 run to the Final Four through Glendale, Arizona. In 2010, Butler, the famous mid-major from Indianapolis, had to go through San Jose and Salt Lake City to make it to the national championship game in which they were a 3-pointer away from the most improbable run in NCAA Tournament history.

Come March 11, after the Big Ten Tournament, after all the games have been played, when the Committee makes their announcement, will the Buckeyes get a short trip to St. Louis or Atlanta? Or, will the Buckeyes have to travel west of the Rockies for the first time since J.J. Sullinger was a sophomore?